Es Posible
Simón Levy
Washington D.C.
November 3, 2026
Investigation and complaint
Es Posible
Ten arrest requests reached Mexico's Foreign Ministry on April 28. Mexico has not carried out a single one. The dates, the precedents and what changes with today's election in the United States.
188 days ago Washington asked Mexico to arrest ten officials from Sinaloa.
One has already stood before a judge in Manhattan and another turned himself in. Mexico has arrested no one.
| Name | Position | Case | Route | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Formally charged · Southern District of New York · case S9 23 Cr. 180 | ||||
| RUBÉN ROCHA MOYA | Governor of Sinaloa, on leave | CHARGED 29-APR-26 | FGR | DELAYED |
| ENRIQUE INZUNZA | Independent senator for Sinaloa | CHARGED 29-APR-26 | IMMUNITY | IMMUNE |
| JUAN DE DIOS GÁMEZ | Mayor of Culiacán, on leave | CHARGED 29-APR-26 | FGR | DELAYED |
| DÁMASO CASTRO | Sinaloa deputy attorney general, on leave | CHARGED 29-APR-26 | FGR | DELAYED |
| FOUR OTHERS | Almanza, Contreras, Dionisio, Valenzuela | CHARGED 29-APR-26 | FGR | DELAYED |
| GERARDO MÉRIDA | Former Sinaloa security secretary | CHARGED 29-APR-26 | BORDER · 12 DAYS | IN CUSTODY |
| ENRIQUE DÍAZ VEGA | Former Sinaloa finance secretary | CHARGED 29-APR-26 | SURRENDER · 16 DAYS | SURRENDERED |
| No public charges · documented allegations | ||||
| MARINA DEL PILAR | Governor of Baja California | VISA REVOKED · EX-HUSBAND ON OFAC LIST | CALENDAR 31-OCT-27 | WAITING |
| AMÉRICO VILLARREAL | Governor of Tamaulipas | VISA REVOKED · INVESTIGATION REPORTED | CALENDAR 30-SEP-28 | WAITING |
| ALFONSO DURAZO | Governor of Sonora | VISA REVOKED · INVESTIGATION REPORTED | CALENDAR 12-SEP-27 | WAITING |
Charged does not mean guilty. The three governors in the second section face no public charges and deny the allegations. Status as of November 3, 2026.
The extradition treaty between Mexico and the United States works in two steps. First the person is provisionally arrested, and from that day Washington has 60 days to deliver the formal request with its evidence. If it does not arrive in time, the detainee walks.
With Ovidio Guzmán the clock did run. He was arrested on January 5, 2023; a judge set March 5 as the deadline for the formal request. He boarded the plane to Chicago on September 15, 253 days after his arrest.
With Rocha Moya there was no January 5. The FGR, Mexico's Attorney General's Office, answered on May 1 that the request carried no evidence and did not show urgency. On July 8 it said it had found no evidence at all. As long as no one arrests him, the clock stays at zero.
Immunity does not protect him either. He took leave on May 2, returned to office on August 21 and left again on the 23rd, this time with no end date. Since August 25 Sinaloa has had an interim governor. Earlier, on May 18, the President had confirmed the freeze on accounts linked to him.
What keeps him free is that no one in Mexico has decided to arrest him. The treaty sets the deadline, but it does not start the clock by itself.
Fact: US-Mexico Extradition Treaty, art. 11; Foreign Ministry, receipt of the requests on Apr 28, 2026; FGR, May 1 and Jul 8, 2026; Presidency, May 18, 2026; leaves of May 2 and Aug 23, 2026; Ovidio Guzmán López case, arrest Jan 5, 2023 and extradition Sep 15, 2023. Source: El Financiero, Zeta Tijuana, Animal Político, Vanguardia, Wikipedia, El Heraldo (EFE), Uno TV.
I reviewed how high-level Mexican defendants have reached US courts. Every one of them came in through one of five routes.
In this case two have already worked, and neither went through the FGR. Mérida took twelve days. Díaz Vega, sixteen.
By treaty, nobody has arrived fast. Ovidio took 253 days from his arrest. Yarrington, the former governor of Tamaulipas, 376 from his arrest in Florence. Caro Quintero was stuck 958 days in injunctions and in the end left through a different door.
The short routes are measured in days: twelve, sixteen, zero.
| Case | Arrested | Reached the US | Days | Route |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Caro Quintero | Jul 15, 2022, Choix, Sinaloa | Feb 27, 2025, New York | 958 | Treaty stalled by injunctions. Left by transfer |
| Tomás Yarrington | Apr 9, 2017, Florence, on a red notice | Apr 20, 2018, Texas | 376 | Extradition from Italy |
| Ovidio Guzmán López | Jan 5, 2023, Culiacán | Sep 15, 2023, Chicago | 253 | Treaty, with injunctions |
| Enrique Díaz Vega | May 15, 2026, surrender | May 15, 2026 | 0 | Deal · 16 days after the indictment |
| Gerardo Mérida Sánchez | May 11, 2026, Arizona | May 11, 2026 | 0 | Border · 12 days after the indictment |
| The 37 of the third transfer | Already jailed in Mexico | Jan 20, 2026, six cities | 0 | Transfer under the National Security Law |
Days between arrest and arrival in the United States. For Mérida and Díaz Vega the arrest took place already in US hands.
Caro Quintero among them. After the tariff threat.
StartAt the Justice Department's request.
166 days laterFrom the Altiplano, on seven aircraft.
161 days laterdays without a fourth transfer. The longest pause in the series.
Running todayThe 92 transferred never went before an extradition judge. They left under Mexico's National Security Law, at the Justice Department's request, and they all had something in common: they were already in Mexican prisons.
Rocha Moya is not. To put him on a plane like that, someone in Mexico would first have to arrest him for something, and the FGR says it has nothing to go on.
Fact: Justice Department and Mexico's Security Cabinet, transfers of Feb 27, 2025, Aug 12, 2025 and Jan 20, 2026 (92 people); Caro Quintero, arrest Jul 15, 2022; Yarrington, arrest Apr 9, 2017 and extradition Apr 20, 2018; Ovidio Guzmán, Jan 5 and Sep 15, 2023. Own verification: as of Nov 1, 2026 there is no public record of a fourth transfer. Source: Uno TV, Zeta Tijuana, El Financiero, N+, AP, Reuters, Expansión, Forbes México, TV Azteca.
Move the arrest date. The tool adds the real days of the three treaty precedents and sets them against Mexico's political calendar.
It is arithmetic with public data. It does not predict what a judge will do.
Analysis: day counts based on the precedents in section 03 and Mexico's electoral calendar (INE, 2026-2027 process). It does not account for a transfer under the National Security Law, which requires no extradition hearing.
If Mexico arrested him today, by treaty and at Ovidio's pace he would land in Manhattan on July 14, 2027. By then Mexico will already have voted.My own calculation · section 04
Each card shows the days since the previous event. The grey ones have not happened yet.
Look at May: within six days the President announced a red notice and her own Security Ministry denied it.
Caro Quintero among them. No extradition hearing: Mexico used its National Security Law.
At the request of the Justice Department, which agreed not to seek the death penalty.
Flown out of the Altiplano prison on seven military aircraft. The total reaches 92.
The emergency economic powers law did not cover them.
Provisional arrest for extradition of the governor and nine others.
34 pages, five counts. The judge is Katherine Polk Failla.
It says the request carries no evidence and does not show urgency.
Rocha Moya steps aside. The Security Ministry says that out of office there is no immunity.
Twelve days after the indictment. He crossed at Nogales.
Mérida appears in Manhattan. Díaz Vega surrenders, according to the Security Cabinet.
The President confirms the freeze on accounts linked to Rocha Moya.
The President says so at her morning press conference.
In Culiacán. He answers questions and goes home.
The Security Ministry corrects the President.
State Department sources confirm it to ZETA. Durazo and Villarreal deny it.
The New York Times reports at least twelve elected officials offered themselves as informants.
It found no evidence against Rocha Moya or the other nine.
Sentenced in Brooklyn.
After his first leave.
Two days later he leaves again. On the 25th an interim governor is sworn in.
He stays in the Senate as an independent, with immunity.
The presidential determination asks Mexico to arrest and prosecute corrupt officials.
The Los Mayos network, including the governor's ex-husband. That day 23,500 signatures against Inzunza's immunity reach the Senate.
It replies that stepping aside is up to each legislator.
It names CEGESA, a builder tied to the Cartel del Noreste, for funneling money to campaigns.
The full House and a third of the Senate. 188 days since the indictment; 287 without a mass transfer.
New rules on politically exposed persons and trusts take effect.
January 4 to February 12.
From here on, arresting a Morena governor costs votes.
Seventeen governorships and the Chamber of Deputies.
His immunity ends.
Marina del Pilar leaves Baja California the same day.
His immunity ends.
The last immunity in the case.
Slide the line sideways
Fact: US Supreme Court, Learning Resources v. Trump, Feb 20, 2026; Southern District of New York; Mexico's Foreign Ministry; FGR; Presidency; Security Ministry; Sinaloa Congress; Mexican Senate; Presidential Determination on major drug transit countries, fiscal year 2027; OFAC, Sep 29 and Oct 13, 2026; DOF, Agreement 115/2026; INE, 2026-2027 calendar. Source: Los Angeles Times and Puente News Collaborative; The New York Times; ZETA; Animal Político; Excélsior; El Imparcial; Expansión; Infobae; Publimetro; Uno TV.
In Mexico, an official with immunity (the fuero) cannot be arrested until Congress lifts it. In New York the fuero does not count: they already charged a sitting governor and a sitting senator.
Rocha Moya no longer has it. Inzunza keeps it until August 2030. The three governors with revoked visas lose it between September 2027 and September 2028.
Fact: constitutional terms of Sinaloa, Sonora, Baja California and Tamaulipas; Mexican Senate, 66th and 67th Legislatures; Rocha Moya's leaves of May 2 and Aug 23, 2026; Security Ministry, May 5, 2026.
The red lines go to courts. The blue ones, to the Treasury.
Tap a state or a city to see what is on file.
Indicting, sanctioning and revoking visas belong to the Justice Department, the Treasury and the State Department. Congress votes on none of it.
Today the full House and a third of the Senate are up. Whoever wins, those three tools stay on the same desk.
Where something did change was February. On the 20th, the Supreme Court struck down the fentanyl tariffs. Sixty-eight days later, New York indicted a sitting Mexican governor. I read that sequence as pressure moving from trade to the courts.
| Lever | What happens |
|---|
Fact: US Supreme Court, Feb 20, 2026; Section 232 tariffs on cars (25%) and steel and aluminum (50%); 1% tax on cash remittances, section 4475 of the Internal Revenue Code, in force since Jan 1, 2026; USMCA Implementation Act (Congressional Research Service). Analysis: the effects column and the reading of how the pressure moved.
Conspiracy to import narcotics and offenses involving machine guns and destructive devices. A 40-year mandatory minimum if convicted. Out of office since August 23. He denies the charges.
Immunity: no · term until Oct 31, 2027Secretary general of the state government when, according to the indictment, the pact with the Chapitos was confirmed. Left the Morena caucus on August 26. He says he is innocent.
Immunity: yes · until Aug 31, 2030Answered the FGR summons. He says the allegations are baseless.
Immunity: noDenies ties to the Chapitos and says he trusts the FGR investigation.
Immunity: noArrested in Arizona on May 11. Pleaded not guilty in Manhattan on the 15th.
Route 2 · twelve daysSurrendered on May 15, according to Security Cabinet sources, and seeks to cooperate. No public record of his court appearance.
Route 3 · sixteen daysMarco Antonio Almanza Avilés, Alberto Jorge Contreras Núñez, José Antonio Dionisio Hipólito and Juan Valenzuela Millán. Valenzuela is also charged over the kidnapping of a DEA source and a relative, which ended in their deaths.
Immunity: noVisa revoked in 2025, along with her then husband's. Since September 29 he has been on the OFAC list as a financial operator for Los Mayos. She called the visa matter an administrative issue.
No public charges · immune until Oct 31, 2027State Department sources confirmed to ZETA that his visa was revoked. The Los Angeles Times reported a fuel-theft investigation. He denies it and says his visa is valid.
No public charges · immune until Sep 30, 2028The same sources confirmed the revocation. The Los Angeles Times and The New York Times reported an investigation. He denies it and asked the Times for a correction.
No public charges · immune until Sep 12, 2027Fact: indictment S9 23 Cr. 180 and DEA press release, Apr 29, 2026; Mexican Senate, Oct 9, 2026; OFAC, Sep 29, 2026; public statements by each person named. Source: ZETA citing State Department sources, Jun 3, 2026; Los Angeles Times and Puente News Collaborative, Jun 3, 2026; The New York Times, Jun 27, 2026; AP; Excélsior; El Universal; La Razón; Animal Político; Expansión.
Washington has already shown it will indict without waiting for immunity to lapse: it did so with a sitting governor and a sitting senator. What it cannot do is arrest in Mexico without Mexico.
Two data points move my date. The first is the transfers: they came every 161 or 166 days, always after pressure from the White House, and the current pause has passed 280 days. The second is the calendar: primaries start on January 4, campaigns on April 4, and Mexico votes on June 6.
Put the two together with the calculator. An arrest after April 4 lands in the middle of the campaign. Before that, at least it is absorbed before the rallies begin.
The US election ends and the negotiation with Mexico resumes. If there is a fourth transfer or an arrest, the pattern says it comes as a package and before the campaigns.
If anything happens, it will come from Washington: Treasury sanctions, visas, a broader indictment.
Durazo leaves on September 12. Marina del Pilar and Rocha Moya finish on October 31. Out of office, no one needs to strip their immunity.
Villarreal keeps his immunity until September 30, 2028 and Inzunza until August 31, 2030. For them the short routes are the deal and the border.
| Person | US indictment | Inner circle in US custody | Visa revoked | Inner circle on OFAC list | US investigation reported | No immunity today | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubén Rocha Moya | ✓ | ✓ | · | · | ✓ | ✓ | 4 |
| Enrique Inzunza | ✓ | ✓ | · | · | ✓ | · | 3 |
| Marina del Pilar Ávila | · | · | ✓ | ✓ | · | · | 2 |
| Américo Villarreal | · | · | ✓ | · | ✓ | · | 2 |
| Alfonso Durazo | · | · | ✓ | · | ✓ | · | 2 |
Each signal points to a source cited here. Revoked visa: confirmed by the governor herself in Baja California; in Sonora and Tamaulipas, by State Department sources, and the governors deny it.
My forecast: Rocha Moya will be arrested or in US custody before October 31, 2027, the day his term ends. My most likely window runs from November 4 to April 3.Simón Levy · signed analysis
Check them off as they happen.
0 of 8 events
In May 2026 I sent the Treasury Department a whistleblower disclosure about obstruction by senior Mexican officials in the Rocha Moya case. OFAC acknowledged receipt.
Six months later the pause goes on. That is why this investigation asks US authorities for five things. Flip each card to see the legal basis.
| Law | What it punishes | Where it applies |
|---|---|---|
| 21 U.S.C. 963 | Conspiracy to import narcotics | Count in indictment S9 23 Cr. 180 |
| 18 U.S.C. 924 | Possession of machine guns and destructive devices | Count in indictment S9 23 Cr. 180 |
| 18 U.S.C. 2339B | Material support to a terrorist organization | Sinaloa Cartel, CJNG and Cartel del Noreste, designated since Feb 20, 2025 |
| E.O. 14059 | Blocking of property for drug trafficking | OFAC sanctions of Sep 29 and Oct 13, 2026 |
| 8 U.S.C. 1182 | Inadmissibility for drug trafficking, including family members who benefited | Revoked visas |
Confirmed fact. Southern District of New York, indictment S9 23 Cr. 180, Apr 29, 2026, and DEA press release of the same day. US-Mexico Extradition Treaty, art. 11. Mexico's Foreign Ministry, Apr 28, 2026. FGR, May 1 and Jul 8, 2026. Security Ministry, May 27, 2026. Sinaloa Congress, leaves of May 2 and Aug 23, 2026. Mexican Senate, Oct 9, 2026. OFAC, Sep 29 and Oct 13, 2026 (Federal Register 2026-21445). Mexico's Security Cabinet, transfers of Feb 27, 2025, Aug 12, 2025 and Jan 20, 2026. Presidential Determination on major drug transit countries, fiscal year 2027. US Supreme Court, Learning Resources v. Trump, Feb 20, 2026. INE, 2026-2027 calendar. DOF, Agreement 115/2026. OFAC, acknowledgment of Simón Levy's disclosure, May 2026.
Press sources. Los Angeles Times and Puente News Collaborative, Jun 3, 2026. The New York Times, Jun 27, 2026. ZETA Tijuana. AP. Reuters. Milenio. Animal Político. Excélsior. El Universal. El Financiero. El Imparcial. Infobae. Expansión. Forbes México. Publimetro. Uno TV. N+.
Photos. Wikimedia Commons, with author and license under each image.
Analysis. The five routes, the deadline calculator, the forecast windows, the exposure index, the scenario effects and the reading of how the pressure moved are by Simón Levy.